The gender pay gap in the UK is not expected to improve over the next few years because of macro-economic developments and Government policies.

The gender pay gap narrowed in April 2009 under the impact of lower male earnings caused by the recession. In particular there were lower male earnings from lower City bonuses and also from lower earnings in male dominated sectors in manufacturing, such as car production. In the year to April 2009, male earnings rose by 1.8 per cent and female earnings rose by 3.4 per cent and the gender pay gap closed by one per cent, from 17.4 to 16.4 per cent.

In the Spring of 2010 there was a strong bounce back in male earnings, from higher City bonuses and stronger earnings in manufacturing. When the findings of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2010, based on April 2010 are published on 10 November, it is likely to show that the narrowing of 2009 has been reversed.

Meanwhile, the outlook for closing the gender pay gap in the next few years also looks bleak because of the Government’s policy of freezing public sector pay. Public sector pay freezes in 2010, 2011 and 2012 will hit female earnings as women make up around two-thirds of the employees in the sector. In the NHS, the proportion of women is around 80 per cent, while in teaching it is close to 75 per cent and local government it is around 73 per cent. Freezing women’s pay will have an adverse impact over at least the next three years.

So the gender pay gap is unlikely to improve over the next few years because of macro-economic developments and Government policies, despite any company-level initiatives to introduce more equity into their pay and employment structures.